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• Tepid Economic Data Suggest a Sluggish Recovery - September 25, 2009
| Consumer sentiment and new-home sales showed signs of improvement Friday, while sales of durable goods fell, signaling the U.S. economy's recovery won't be a smooth ride. Optimism Michael Jordan Shoes among U.S. consumers reached its highest level in September since January 2008, and new-home sales posted their fifth-straight month of improvements. But manufacturers' orders for durable goods -- big-ticket items designed to last three years or more -- tumbled 2.4% to a seasonally adjusted $164.44 billion in August, on a plunge in aircraft orders. Real Time Economics Economists React: 'Surprising Decline' in Orders Audio: S&P's Wyss on Durables, Auto Outlook Together, "it's indicative of a patchy, slow recovery," said Joshua Shapiro, MFR Inc.'s chief economist. "In that type of environment, you're going to get some things that disappoint; you're going to get some things that are all right." The Commerce Department's durable-goods report was a surprising blow to the manufacturing sector. In July, durable orders rose 4.8%, and data released earlier this month showed the industry was growing. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a key gauge of business spending, declined 0.4%, after falling 1.3% in July. The small drop added to concerns about the underlying health of the U.S. economy, particularly as government stimulus programs -- including the "cash for clunkers" program and housing-market support -- wind down. That said, the manufacturing Air Yeezy Shoes sector has largely posted improvements lately, and most analysts say the durable-goods numbers should look better in coming months. The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 73.5 this month, up from 65.7 in August. Consumers' views of the current and future state of the economy improved. Even though consumers expect things to get better, a variety of headwinds, such as stagnant wages and the high unemployment rate, still plague them. That's likely to contribute to the slow rebound in consumer spending, which makes up about 70% of the country's gross domestic product. New-home sales rose 0.7% in August, from the previous month, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 429,000, the Commerce Department said Friday. The supply of unsold homes eased, too, falling to 7.3 months in August from 7.6 months in July. Prices remained low as a result of excess inventories and a plethora of foreclosed homes. The median price for new homes was $195,200 in August, down 11.7% from a year earlier. Despite the increase Air Jordan 2 in new-home sales and evidence that inventories of both new and existing homes are falling, analysts expressed some concern that housing numbers weren't stronger last month. On Thursday, a report showed that existing-home sales dropped 2.7% in August after four months of improvements. "On the whole, this was a somewhat disappointing report, and when combined with the poor existing-home sales report yesterday, suggests that the recent positive momentum in the U.S. housing market may be slowing," TD Securities' Millan L.B. Mulraine wrote in a note to clients. The overall trend, though, shows the sector has come up from the bottom and is stabilizing, aided by reduced prices, a government tax credit and lower levels of construction.
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